Bitcoin bull market ‘still halfway’ after $30K BTC price crash destroys leverage

A “mania top” — the classic end of a Bitcoin bull run — has not appeared yet, and fundamentals are unchanged in their outlook, says Willy Woo.

Bitcoin is still “halfway” through its current bull market, and this week’s price dip turned out to be a “win” for hodlers, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo.

In the latest edition of his market updates, which he made publicly accessible, the popular statistician outlined multiple factors that all suggest that Bitcoin (BTC) is anything but bearish.

Woo: BTC price did not reach “mania top”

BTC/USD recovered strongly after hitting lows of $30,000 on May 19, preserving its gains after the sharpest recovery in its history. 

“Are we in a bull market? Long range macro indicators like NVT ratio are very healthy, that remains unchanged,” Woo wrote.

“So yes, this is not a mania top which all BTC bull markets end in, price is BELOW fundamentals, not above it. We are still halfway.”

NVT, or network-value-to-transaction ratio, is a popular metric that aims at identifying profitability among hodlers. As Cointelegraph reported earlier this week, even before the dip NVT was signaling a buying opportunity at price levels around $42,000.

NVT price, which Woo calls an “organic” valuation of Bitcoin, still lies at $55,000, which along with stock-to-flow-based projections of $60,000 suggest that BTC/USD is considerably undervalued.

The largest cryptocurrency may already have the tools it needs to regain its lost ground, thanks to a shakeout of leveraged traders and the now-muted effects of Elon Musk tweeting negative comments.

In fact, the dip may have been just what Bitcoin needed.

“Newish whales dumped out, retail bought a chunk of the dip, coins getting more distributed, I’ll take that as a win,” Woo added.

Bitcoin funding rates history. Source: Bybt.com

Notably, the sharp drop to $30,000 resulted in Bitcoin funding rates flipping negative across the board to record lows, which could provide fuel for a massive short squeeze.

“That cleanse set up Bitcoin for $100k. Funding rates largely reset,” Messari analyst Mira Christanto commented regarding the latest Bitcoin funding rate data. She added: 

“The shakeout before the breakout.”

$4 billion in irrational trades disappear

On the topic of a trader shakeout, fresh data from Glassnode shows just how much leverage was flushed from the market during the drop to $30,000 and the rise back to $40,000.

Over the course of the day, open interest in Bitcoin futures fell from above $17 billion to below $13 billion and stayed at those levels.

“Goodbye leverage,” analyst William Clemente commented regarding the figures.

Bitcoin futures open interest chart. Source: William Clemente/Twitter

For new buyers entering the space, Blockstream CEO Adam Back, meanwhile, had some cautionary words.

“Thoughts on leverage. *don’t*!” he summarized in a series of tweets.

“Better just hodl, dca, cold store. if you’re gonna use leverage for fun/profit, you’re increasing risk a lot. do it with max 10% of coins (or less). never place a leverage trade without a limit stop, or implicit stop from small position liquidation.”

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